Simple. Collect money in the Stick market
What's the reason for buying disappearing? sell.
🍒 Sell when: Thesis is broken
Core: The long-term economics have deteriorated, the "moat" been removed, and the original purchase data has changed. This is "admit the mistake" of selling, and most decisive.
Example: $Para (sold at a loss)
The entire position was cleared in 2024, admitting "lost quite a bit of money". The reasons are very specific:
· cable TV revenue continues to decline
· The streaming business suffered heavy losses, and the industry was in a price war
· The dividend was cut "not good news"
Sell half: Valuation too high or position too large
Core: The company is good, but is too expensive relative to its market value (other current offerings have better value, or a single stock accounts for too high a proportion of the portfolio, creates risk of more $’Decline, leaking.
Example: Apple (sold about 50%)
The Apple cut in half in Q2 2024 core reasons:
· Valuation concerns: Apple's stock price surged 23% in Q2, no longer offered a sufficient margin of safety
· Position management: Apple once accounted for 100% of my portfolio 2008 - 2019, which is an extremely high
· Tax considerations: selling in advance while capital gains tax rates are low would benefit shareholder
🏦 Sell in batches: until Valuations returned to reasonable levels
Core changes: A stock held for many years has seen its price rise from "very cheap" to "fair" or even "slightly expensive", sell and takes profits at levels.
Example: $BA Bank of America (sold 50%)
Starting July 2024, BEGAN large-scale reductions. key data:
· average purchase price $7.14 per share**, while average selling price **$41.25
· $BA stock price traded at a significant premium to book value (around 39-43%), while at a deep discount when purchased
· Declining net interest income as the Federal Reserve cuts rates
💰 Buy more: Price is cheap and the business still good
Core criterion: Buy criteria: "can I understand the Customer -are the long-term incomes good, management is competent ( $BNGO CEO and broad aren't -the price is very attractive". When these four conditions are All met Buy heavily.
Example: $AAPL purchase 2016 Apple's metrics:
· P/E ratio 12, while the S&P 500 was 20
· Return on equity (ROE) was as high as 45%, operating margin was 30%
· Debt-to-equity: 0.45, with abundant cash holdings
· The iPhone ecosystem had strong customer stickiness (moat), which Buffett regarded as a "consumer goods company" Not a tech company
Summary: welcome stock price decline as a net buyer. Be not concerned with quick + stock $ price increases, want Stocks that are selling at bargain prices. the opposite.
💎 A summary in one sentence
Don't look at a single metric like P/E ratio to decide whether to sell. ask: "If I didn't hold this stock: would I buy it at the current price?" If No—whether because the business has deteriorated or the price is too expensive— sell.
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